The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released updated economic projections including revenue estimates and petroleum levy targets for the upcoming fiscal year.
According to the IMF assessment, a further increase in fuel-related revenue collection is likely.
While the petroleum levy target for the current fiscal year was set at Rs. 1.468 trillion, collections are now expected to reach Rs. 1.546 trillion. For the next fiscal year, petroleum development levy receipts are projected to rise to Rs. 1.727 trillion, indicating continued reliance on fuel taxation.
Pakistan’s total tax collection target for the next fiscal year could reach Rs. 15.264 trillion, reflecting continued efforts to expand revenue collection under the ongoing reform programme.
The report projects that direct taxes may generate approximately Rs. 7.413 trillion, while sales tax revenues are expected to reach Rs. 4.727 trillion. Collections from federal excise duty are estimated at Rs. 1.043 trillion, and customs duties could contribute around Rs. 1.651 trillion during the fiscal year.
Gas surcharge collections are also expected to increase. Against a target of Rs. 90 billion in the ongoing fiscal year, revenues may reach Rs. 134 billion, with projections rising further to Rs. 151 billion in the next fiscal year.
On the non-tax revenue side, Pakistan is expected to collect Rs. 3.702 trillion in the current fiscal year against a target of Rs. 3.681 trillion. However, non-tax revenues for the next fiscal year are projected to decline to Rs. 2.768 trillion.
The IMF estimates Pakistan’s total public expenditure for the upcoming fiscal year at approximately Rs. 26.423 trillion, with federal government spending projected at around Rs. 16.592 trillion.
Debt servicing is expected to remain the largest expenditure component, with the federal government likely to spend Rs. 7.824 trillion on interest payments. Domestic debt repayments are projected at Rs. 6.652 trillion, while foreign debt servicing may require Rs. 1.107 trillion.
Defence spending for the current fiscal year is expected to remain slightly below earlier estimates at Rs. 2.564 trillion, compared with the budgeted Rs. 2.575 trillion. For the next fiscal year, the defence budget is projected to increase to approximately Rs. 2.665 trillion, according to the IMF report.
The projections highlight Pakistan’s continued dependence on taxation measures, particularly fuel levies, alongside rising debt servicing obligations as authorities prepare the next federal budget under IMF programme commitments.
