Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025 is expected to rise by 6.5% to 7%, up from 3.0% in August 2025 and 6.93% in September 2024. On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, inflation is projected to increase by 3.1%.
This would be the highest year-on-year (YoY) inflation reading in 11 months and the highest MoM increase in 26 months, according to Topline Securities.
The surge in food inflation is attributed to the impact of ongoing floods, which have disrupted food supply chains, the report stated.
The expected MoM rise of 8.75% in the food segment is the highest recorded increase in this category. Key contributors to this spike are rising prices for tomatoes (+122%), wheat (+49%), flour (+39%), and onions (+35%). Meanwhile, potatoes, rice, chicken, eggs, and sugar have seen more moderate price increases.
Housing, water, electricity, and gas are expected to experience a slight decline of 0.24% MoM. A decrease in electricity charges, due to a 2.19% drop in electricity tariffs, is one of the factors contributing to this decline. The decrease in electricity prices is partly offset by a 2.75% increase in the cost of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).
The transport sector is also experiencing a decline, with a 1.25% fall driven by a 2.7% drop in motor fuel prices. Notably, petrol prices remain stable, while high-speed diesel (HSD) has dropped by 5.3%.
For September 2025, analysts expect inflation to range between 6.5% and 7.0%, with real rates surging to 400-450bps, outpacing Pakistan’s typical rate of 200-300bps. Key risks to the inflation outlook include fluctuations in global commodity prices, which could shift the trajectory of inflation in the coming months.
